The apparent calm in the oil market in 2025 could lead to a false sense of stability. The most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook from the EIA (May 2025) projects a downward trend in crude oil prices over the next two years. According to the U.S. agency, Brent is expected to average $66 per barrel this year and fall to $59 in 2026. WTI follows a similar trajectory. While these figures may seem reasonable to those who prioritize macroeconomic predictability, beneath them lie structural tensions, geopolitical imbalances, and underestimated strategic risks.
The first factor explaining this decline is the sustained increase in crude production by non-OPEC+ countries, especially in North America, Guyana, and Brazil. The EIA estimates that these players will add between 1.3 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026. This phenomenon—fueled by prior investments, technological improvements, and post-pandemic recovery expectations—has reshaped global supply. However, increased production does not necessarily mean greater energy security. In fact, it could exacerbate market fragmentation.
OPEC+ faces a paradox: maintaining cuts to support prices without giving up too much market share to its competitors. According to the same report, although a slight increase in production is expected, levels will remain below the declared targets. The cartel is walking a tightrope between internal discipline and external pressure. The continuation of this strategy is not guaranteed, and any internal rupture could lead to a new cycle of oversupply and volatility.
Adding to this scenario is the growing commercial and political uncertainty. Tensions between the United States and its partners in Asia, the effect of potential tariffs on strategic goods, and the fragmentation of global supply chains indirectly affect energy markets. The volatility projected by the EIA is not a side effect, but a direct consequence of an international environment where multilateral balances are fragile, and wars—economic, technological, or conventional—have an immediate impact on oil prices.
What is concerning is that this downward price trend could discourage much-needed investment in exploration, infrastructure, and the energy transition. While governments face fiscal and social pressures, and large companies adjust their margins, the risk is that short-term logic prevails, sidelining the structural planning the energy sector requires. Worse still, if prices continue to fall below the profitability threshold for many mid-sized producers, we could witness a process of consolidation with unpredictable geopolitical consequences.
In short, oil in 2025 is sailing relatively calm waters, but deep currents persist beneath the surface. We are not entering a new era of stability, but rather facing a truce conditioned by tactical decisions, structural uncertainties, and an energy transition moving forward without clear direction. Correctly interpreting market signals is not only a matter of economic technique but of strategic insight. And the message from the EIA report is clear: this calm may just be the prelude to a new storm.
